Bitcoin’s recent price behavior is revealing one of the strongest market divergences in years, a disconnect that analyst Michaël van de Poppe argues is setting the stage for a major recovery toward the $110K–$115K range.
While global tech equities have surged back, Bitcoin remains lagging, creating what he calls a “mispricing” that won’t last much longer.
A Clear Divergence Emerges Between Bitcoin and High-Beta Tech
For years, Bitcoin has shown a meaningful correlation with the Nasdaq and other high-beta sectors, especially during risk-on market phases. Yet that relationship has fractured over the past several weeks.
Tech stocks, which represent beta assets, high-volatility, growth-driven companies, have already erased the losses from their recent downturn. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has not kept pace.
This divergence is visible in the chart comparing Bitcoin (white line) and the “Pure Vol vs Pure Profitability” index (orange line), shared by @jvisserlabs. Beta assets have broken higher, while Bitcoin is still trading far below its most recent peak.
Van de Poppe highlights the core issue: Nasdaq resilience should have lifted Bitcoin, yet Bitcoin stalled. That imbalance represents opportunity, not weakness.
The Post-Crash Environment Shows Risk Appetite Returning
Bitcoin’s sharp correction from $115K to $80K in just two weeks was dramatic, but the broader market behavior during that drawdown was even more revealing.
- Beta stocks surged back aggressively after the drop.
- The “quality vs beta” relationship flipped, signaling renewed risk-taking.
- Bitcoin, typically grouped alongside other high-beta assets, did not rebound at the same pace.
Van de Poppe views this mismatch as temporary. Beta assets have now retraced their entire decline, suggesting investors are once again positioning for upside.
Historically, when high-beta equities regain momentum, Bitcoin is not far behind.
Why Mispricing Could Drive Bitcoin Back Toward $110K – $115K
Van de Poppe argues that the correction was “dubious”, a dramatic move that does not align with what correlated markets are signaling. If Bitcoin reverts to its typical relationship with beta assets, the next phase is likely upward.
The playbook is straightforward:
- Beta stocks are grinding higher.
- Risk appetite is returning.
- Bitcoin remains discounted relative to its usual correlation.
That combination often precedes a powerful upside move. For van de Poppe, this makes a climb back toward $110K–$115K not only possible but probable in the coming weeks or months.
A Rejection of the 4-Year Cycle Thesis
Van de Poppe again dismisses the long-held 4-year cycle framework as outdated. He argues that Bitcoin now moves based on liquidity, institutional adoption, macro correlations, and rotational flows, not halving-timelines.
With tech markets rallying, beta assets outperforming, and Bitcoin lagging behind, time-based models fail to explain current behavior.
Correlation-based analysis, he argues, offers the clearer picture, and that picture points upward.
The Bottom Line
Bitcoin’s separation from high-beta equities is unlikely to persist. The market is already showing signs of renewed risk-on appetite, and the chart divergence between Bitcoin and tech stocks is now too wide to ignore.
As van de Poppe concludes: Bitcoin appears mispriced, and a return to $110K–$115K looks increasingly likely as correlations realign.
