- Daily Binance inflows have reached 7,500 BTC, the highest since March 2025.
- Short-term holders (STHs) are realizing losses near $112,000, signaling late-stage correction behavior.
- Exchange inflows reflect renewed selling pressure, but demand continues to absorb supply.
- 2025’s Bitcoin seasonality diverges sharply from historical patterns.
New on-chain data from CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin inflows to Binance have surged to a multi-month high, averaging 7,500 BTC per day based on the 30-day moving average. According to analyst Darkfost, this marks the strongest exchange inflow activity since the March correction, suggesting some investors are taking profits and reducing exposure following the October liquidation event.
Despite these elevated inflows, Bitcoin’s market structure remains resilient, with spot demand strong enough to absorb the increased selling pressure. The steady behavior of order books across major venues indicates that selling is being met with consistent buyer demand, especially from institutional and high-net-worth segments.
Short-Term Holder Capitulation Near Completion
Data also highlights that short-term holders, typically reactive investors who respond quickly to volatility, have been selling at realized losses. The average realized price among these wallets sits around $112,000, meaning many have been underwater for weeks.
Over the past month, between 40,000 and 55,000 BTC have been sent to exchanges by STHs, a dynamic often linked to capitulation events. Historically, this type of behavior has coincided with the final stages of market corrections, when weak hands exit and long-term investors begin reaccumulating.
Outlook: Absorption and Rebalancing Phase
While exchange inflows remain elevated, the market’s ability to hold its broader structure indicates that accumulation demand is offsetting short-term distribution. Analysts view the recent increase in inflows as part of a rebalancing phase rather than a sustained bearish reversal.
Separately, Crypto Rover’s seasonality data shows that 2025’s Bitcoin performance has diverged from historical norms, with atypical weakness in typically strong months like March and November. Analysts interpret this shift as evidence of a maturing market — one increasingly shaped by macro liquidity cycles, tokenized yield products, and institutional hedging behavior.
Many times this year, Bitcoin’s seasonality played out completely differently than expected. pic.twitter.com/orkzM5JlPp
— Crypto Rover (@cryptorover) November 11, 2025
With short-term capitulation deepening and liquidity patterns stabilizing, current on-chain signals suggest the market may be nearing the end of its corrective phase, setting the stage for renewed accumulation in the months ahead.