According to a new 10x Research report, Bitcoin’s latest stall near $107,000 may be more than a brief pause, it could mark a structural shift in market sentiment. The firm’s “Bear Market Watch” analysis, released earlier today, examines what institutional traders are seeing in Bitcoin’s on-chain and derivatives data.
Smart Money Is Turning Cautious
The report notes that while retail traders remain hopeful, institutional desks have quietly started tightening exposure, mirroring early-cycle caution seen before previous downturns. 10x Research founder Markus Thielen, a former Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley strategist, said his models show Bitcoin hovering near a critical historical threshold around the 350-day moving average (~$101,000), a level that often separates bullish from corrective phases.
“Our proprietary indicators suggest risk appetite has faded beneath the surface,” Thielen explained, adding that institutional positioning now points to a possible pullback toward $100,000 before another trend forms.
Interpreting the Chart
The accompanying chart, powered by Glassnode data, visualizes Bitcoin’s bull/bear cycle indicator from 2012 through 2025. The purple zones represent bear-market conditions, where the indicator dips below zero, while the blue regions mark recovery and expansion phases. Historically, each transition above the zero line has preceded major bull runs, while breakdowns below it have foreshadowed deep corrections.
As of late October 2025, Bitcoin’s indicator sits just above the neutral line, suggesting an inflection point. The upward arrow on the chart highlights potential resilience, but also warns that momentum is weakening faster than in prior cycles.
A Market at a Crossroads
Thielen emphasized that crypto’s transparency makes such analyses unique: “The kind of internal flow data once reserved for hedge funds is now visible to anyone on-chain. The challenge isn’t access, it’s interpretation.”
Despite supportive macro trends like easing inflation and stronger equities, 10x Research maintains a tactically bearish stance in the near term, seeing Bitcoin’s current range as a “decision zone.”
As Thielen summarized: “Smart money trades structure and signals. Those who don’t, fade every cycle.”