Bitcoin’s price behavior in 2025 appears to be following one of its most consistent long-term patterns: spending roughly half the year in negative territory. According to analyst Joao Wedson, Bitcoin historically records an average of 170 negative daily closes per year, spanning every cycle since 2010.
This year has already exceeded that level. With 171 negative days logged in 2025, the data strongly suggests that Bitcoin is on track to end the year in a sideways consolidation range, rather than entering a deeper decline during the final stretch of December.
Why 171 Negative Days Matters
The chart shared by Wedson overlays Bitcoin’s price with its annual count of negative days. Every cycle shows a similar rhythm, once the tally approaches the historical average of 170, the market tends to enter a flattening phase rather than accelerating downward.
That pattern now appears to be repeating:
- 2025: 171 negative days → already above the long-term average
- Implication: The market has likely reached its typical threshold for yearly downside action
- Outcome: A sideways close becomes the most probable scenario
Wedson notes that when deeper pullbacks do occur, they typically arise in the following year, not in the same year that hits the 170-day threshold.
Potential Weakness Shifts to 2026
With the 2025 negative-day count already surpassing the historical benchmark, Wedson argues that any significant downturn is more likely to materialize in 2026, should conditions deteriorate.
The displayed chart reinforces this idea. In previous cycles, including 2014, 2018, and 2022, the years marked by heavy negative-day readings were often followed by a more turbulent period. But once the negative-day count peaked, the year commonly ended with price flattening rather than collapsing further.
A Market That Has Already Absorbed Its Yearly Decline
Bitcoin’s performance in 2025 suggests the market has already endured its “standard quota” of downside, according to historical rhythm. That makes the current environment less about fear of a sudden plunge and more about preparing for what comes next.
Wedson’s conclusion is clear – If a deeper drop is coming, the calendar points squarely to 2026 – not the remaining weeks of 2025.
