- JPMorgan forecasts Bitcoin outpacing gold in 2025 as BTC gains 18% since April, gold drops 8% amid ETF shifts.
- Strategy targets $84B in BTC buys by 2027; states explore reserves, boosting Bitcoin’s safe-haven appeal vs. gold.
JPMorgan analysts project Bitcoin may surpass gold in performance during the second half of 2025, citing institutional adoption and corporate treasury strategies as key drivers. The bank’s report notes Bitcoin’s 18% rise since April contrasts with gold’s 8% decline, signaling shifting investor preferences.
Historically, gold has dominated as a safe haven during economic uncertainty. However, Bitcoin is gaining ground, with JPMorgan observing a “zero-sum game” where each asset’s gains often come at the other’s expense.
From mid-February to April, gold rallied amid geopolitical tensions and inflation fears, while Bitcoin lagged. Since then, Bitcoin reversed the trend, climbing above $100,000 as gold retreated from its $3,400 peak.
ETF data underscores this shift. U.S. Bitcoin ETFs, like BlackRock’s IBIT, have seen consistent inflows, while gold ETFs faced withdrawals.
Futures markets mirror the pattern: open interest in Bitcoin contracts rose as gold positions contracted.
Corporate and State Adoption Fuel Bitcoin’s Rise
JPMorgan highlights corporate accumulation as a catalyst. Firms like Strategy and Metaplanet aggressively expanded Bitcoin holdings, with Strategy targeting $84 billion in BTC purchases by 2027. Metaplanet aims to hold 10,000 BTC by 2025, already securing over half that amount.
U.S. states such as Arizona and New Hampshire are exploring Bitcoin reserves, potentially creating sustained demand.
“As more states consider adding Bitcoin to reserves, it could become a structural tailwind” analysts noted.
Favorable U.S. regulatory developments and mergers in the crypto sector, including Coinbase’s $2.9 billion acquisition of Deribit and Robinhood’s purchase of WonderFi, signal institutional confidence. These moves, coupled with Bitcoin’s fixed supply, enhance its appeal as a long-term store of value.
Bitcoin trades near $103,800, up 11% year-to-date, while Gold holds at $3,223, up 20%. JPMorgan attributes Bitcoin’s slower annual growth to early-year volatility but expects momentum to build. For Bitcoin to decisively outperform, it must sustain breaks above $105,000 with institutional inflows.
Gold (XAU/USD) – Price & Technical Analysis – May 13, 2025
Gold is currently trading at $3,223.72, up +1.45% on the day, marking a strong bounce after recent profit-taking last week. While today’s move reasserts bullish momentum, gold is still -2.59% over the last 5 days, but holds a positive +0.36% monthly performance.
Over a 6-month horizon, gold remains in a firm uptrend, having gained +25.63%, and an impressive +36.74% in the past year, clearly supported by macroeconomic instability and global safe-haven demand.
Bitcoin (BTC) & Gold (XAU) – Price and Correlation Analysis – May 13, 2025
Bitcoin is trading at $103,254, slightly down -0.27%, while Gold sits at $3,224.77, up +1.52% today. This divergence highlights a short-term inverse correlation, where capital appears to be rotating into traditional safe-haven assets like gold amid geopolitical or macroeconomic tension.
Over the past few weeks, BTC has shown medium-term correlation with gold during moments of financial market stress, but that correlation breaks as soon as bullish crypto momentum returns.
