Takeaways:
- Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen below $104,000, with analysts warning of a potential drop under $100,000 amid growing macro and DeFi concerns.
- Prediction markets now assign a 74% probability of Bitcoin breaching $100,000 in November, marking a critical test of long-term support.
- Analysts from 10x Research highlight $100,000–$101,000 as key support; failure to hold could send BTC toward $94,000–$85,000.
- Despite the bearish trend, some analysts foresee buyer interest re-emerging near $100,000, potentially triggering a short-term rebound.
Bitcoin’s price has fallen to $103,340, breaching key support levels and reigniting fears of a deeper correction. The decline comes amid persistent macroeconomic uncertainty, DeFi-related instability, and a new wave of leveraged liquidations sweeping through the market.
According to data from CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin’s market capitalization has slipped to $2.06 trillion, down more than 2% in the past 24 hours, while trading volume surged over 57% to $84.5 billion, reflecting heightened volatility and panic selling.
High Probability of a Fall Below $100,000
Prediction market platforms tracked by Bloomberg indicate a 74% chance that Bitcoin will trade below $100,000 this year, most likely in November. Analysts note that the sentiment aligns with recent technical breakdowns, which show increased vulnerability after Bitcoin failed to sustain above its 7-day moving average.
Markus Thielen of 10x Research stated that Bitcoin’s breach of the $106,000 level shifts market focus to $100,000–$101,000, which now serves as a final line of defense. “A clean break below that zone could accelerate losses toward $94,000 or even $85,000, especially if macro conditions worsen,” Thielen warned.
Technical Outlook: Bears Regain Momentum
Analysts at Kitco News confirmed that November Bitcoin futures hit a fresh contract low, signaling renewed bearish momentum. DailyForex analysts added that while some buying interest may surface near $100,000, long-term sentiment remains negative as moving averages continue to slope downward.
Crypto strategist Christopher Lewis offered a more balanced take, suggesting that while the broader trend is bearish, “psychological support near $100,000 could attract dip-buyers, leading to a temporary recovery.”
Broader Market Pressures and DeFi Concerns
Bitcoin’s decline is occurring alongside a broader risk-off movement in global markets. Tech stocks have retreated, and crypto traders are deleveraging amid fears of contagion from a DeFi liquidity crunch, following recent exploits in protocols such as Balancer and Stream Finance.
Over $1 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated across major exchanges within 24 hours, according to Coinglass data, the majority from long trades, further accelerating the downturn.
Outlook: Key Levels to Watch
Traders are now closely watching Bitcoin’s ability to hold the $100,000–$101,000 support zone. A sustained close below this range could confirm a bearish continuation, potentially leading to new cycle lows.
Still, some market participants remain cautiously optimistic. Several institutional reports suggest that if Bitcoin briefly dips under $100,000, a rebound driven by bargain hunters and ETF inflows could follow, similar to past mid-cycle corrections seen in 2021 and 2024.
As sentiment oscillates between fear and cautious optimism, all eyes remain on Bitcoin’s next move, and whether the world’s largest cryptocurrency can reclaim the six-figure mark before the month ends.