According to new data from Glassnode and Bitbo, Bitcoin’s volatility has fallen to its lowest level in history, while long-term “OG” whale wallets have been actively distributing holdings throughout 2025. Despite this wave of profit-taking, several analysts suggest the market’s quiet phase could be setting the stage for a powerful upside breakout in 2026.
Glassnode’s on-chain data highlights a surge in high-value transactions from early adopters, with several $100M–$1B batches of BTC moving to exchanges over the past year. Historically, such whale activity has preceded market transitions, not long-term downtrends.
🐋 ALERT: OG $BTC whales dumped a lot of $BTC in 2025, per Glassnode. pic.twitter.com/meOPTgvFR0
— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) November 9, 2025
PlanC’s Bold 2026 Bitcoin Forecast
Market analyst PlanC published his “5 Bold Predictions” for Bitcoin, suggesting the current lull is deceptive. His key forecast: Bitcoin will never fall below $70,000 again and will likely reach $130K–$150K by January 2026, eventually crossing $200K later that year.
He also warned that those who exited during this correction phase in late 2025 will “FOMO back in” once Bitcoin resumes its four-year cycle momentum. His post quickly went viral, reinforcing the growing sentiment that accumulation during low-volatility periods often leads to explosive rallies.
Volatility Collapse Could Signal Imminent Move
Bitbo’s Volatility Index shows Bitcoin’s 30-day volatility at just 1.99%, the lowest level ever recorded. Similar readings in past cycles, such as early 2020 and late 2016, preceded parabolic runs in both Bitcoin’s price and trading volume.
⚡ NOW: $BTC Volatility approaches its All-Time Low, per Bitbo. pic.twitter.com/yj9c1ho79R
— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) November 9, 2025
With whales rebalancing portfolios, retail sentiment muted, and volatility compressed to multi-year lows, many analysts believe the stage is set for a major directional move. Whether it breaks up or down, history suggests this calm won’t last much longer.