Bitcoin’s long-term performance relative to gold has reached an extreme level that has only appeared a handful of times in its history.
According to a chart shared by crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) of Bitcoin against gold has dropped below 30, a zone traditionally associated with oversold conditions.
This development places Bitcoin and gold at a critical inflection point, where historical data suggests a potential change in relative momentum may be approaching.
RSI Against Gold Hits a Historic Extreme
The chart shows Bitcoin’s RSI versus gold falling below the 30 level for the fourth time since Bitcoin began trading. In previous instances, this condition coincided with major market bottoms for Bitcoin.
Van de Poppe highlights three prior occurrences:
- The 2015 bear market bottom
- The 2018 bear market bottom
- The 2022 bear market bottom
Each of these periods marked the end of prolonged underperformance versus gold, followed by a shift in relative strength.
Relative Valuation Comes Into Focus
While the analyst cautions that such signals do not guarantee immediate outcomes, the repeated historical pattern suggests that one of the two assets may now be mispriced relative to the other.
In this instance, Van de Poppe argues that gold appears overvalued compared to Bitcoin. The RSI compression indicates Bitcoin has lagged gold significantly, creating conditions that have previously preceded a rotation in favor of Bitcoin.
Large Gap To The 20-Week Moving Average
The chart also shows a substantial distance between the current RSI level and the 20-week moving average. This wide gap reinforces the idea that the relationship between Bitcoin and gold has stretched to an unsustainable extreme.
Historically, similar divergences have resolved through a rebalancing process rather than prolonged continuation in the same direction.
History Rhymes, Even If It Never Repeats
Van de Poppe emphasizes that historical patterns should not be treated as guarantees. However, he notes that data-driven signals like RSI extremes have consistently highlighted moments when relative value dynamics were shifting.
With Bitcoin’s RSI versus gold now revisiting a level last seen at major market turning points, the chart suggests that a potential rotation between the two assets may be forming on the horizon.
