- Crypto expert Kiarash Hossainpour forecasts potential sell-offs totaling over 700,000 BTC in 2024, influenced by major holders like Grayscale, Mt. Gox, Celsius, FTX, and US Bitcoin miners.
- The US government’s strategy with seized Bitcoin, including those from Silk Road, adds to the potential market pressure, though the impact may be moderated by varied seller timelines.
In a pivotal analysis that could signify a major shake-up in the Bitcoin market, Kiarash Hossainpour, the founder of Colorways Ventures and The Consensus, has highlighted several substantial Bitcoin holdings that may exert significant selling pressure in the first half of 2024. This forecast suggests a potential storm of activity that could shape the crypto landscape.
The Forces Behind the Potential Bitcoin Sell-Off
Hossainpour points to the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) as a primary contributor to this potential wave. Grayscale, having reduced its BTC holdings from 621,000 to just under 580,000 since launching their spot ETF, faces ongoing sell-off pressures due to its high annual fees. This movement is likely contributing to the current downward trend in the market.
Another key factor is the anticipated distribution of 138,000 BTC from the long-drawn Mt. Gox insolvency proceedings. Expected before Q3 2024, this release could lead to significant sales for fiat conversion or distribution to creditors.
Additional Contributors to the Market Pressure
The insolvency proceedings of Celsius and FTX further compound the potential sell-off scenario. Approximately 38,000 BTC from Celsius and 20,500 BTC from FTX are expected to undergo liquidation plans and distributions, potentially converting these holdings into dollars.
Moreover, US Bitcoin miners are estimated to hold around 32,000 BTC, accumulated in anticipation of the next Bitcoin Halving event. A portion of these holdings is expected to be sold in 2024, adding to the market pressure.
The US Government’s Role and Its Seized Bitcoin
The US government’s strategy concerning seized Bitcoin also plays a crucial role in this forecast. From 2020 to 2022, authorities seized 207,189 BTC in various cases, including those related to the Silk Road, Jimmy Zhong, and the Bitfinex hackers. While only a fraction of these have been sold so far, the US government typically offloads these BTC in batches, contributing further to the market’s potential volatility.
Analyzing the Cumulative Impact
In sum, the Bitcoin holdings of the aforementioned entities amount to over 716,000 BTC. While not all holdings are expected to be sold this year, especially concerning the US government, the market could still face significant selling pressure.
Hossainpour notes that the potential impact of these sell-offs might be moderated by the differing timelines and strategies of each seller. He underscores,
“It’s important to note that each of these sellers has their own timeline, it doesn’t all happen at once, which significantly reduces the impact.”
As the market braces for these potential movements, BTC currently trades at $40,860. The crypto community and investors are closely watching these developments, as they could herald significant changes in Bitcoin‘s market dynamics in 2024.