- Michael Saylor predicts a major demand shock for Bitcoin if the US SEC approves the spot Bitcoin ETF in January 2024.
- The upcoming Bitcoin Halving event in 2024 is expected to create a supply shock, potentially increasing Bitcoin’s value and scarcity.
Spot Bitcoin ETF: A Potential Turning Point for Bitcoin
Michael Saylor, the founder of MicroStrategy and a prominent advocate for Bitcoin adoption, has highlighted the potential for a significant demand shock for Bitcoin. This expectation hinges on the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) anticipated approval of a spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) in January 2024.
A Historical Parallel with the S&P 500 Index Funds
In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Saylor drew a parallel between the prospective impact of the Bitcoin ETF and the launch of the S&P 500 index funds in the stock market. He described the potential ETF approval as
“the biggest development on Wall Street in three decades,”
underscoring the transformative effect it could have on Bitcoin‘s market dynamics.
The Confluence of Demand and Supply Shocks
Saylor’s analysis extends beyond the ETF approval. He points to the Bitcoin Halving event scheduled for the second quarter of 2024 as a catalyst for a supply shock. This event, which will halve the rate at which new Bitcoins are created, is expected to make the cryptocurrency more valuable and scarce, thereby intensifying the demand shock initiated by the ETF approval.
MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Strategy
Amidst this bullish outlook, MicroStrategy, the largest institutional holder of Bitcoin, may continue to accumulate the cryptocurrency. The company’s recent purchase in November 2023, when Bitcoin‘s price was just above $34,000, is indicative of its ongoing investment strategy. Since beginning its Bitcoin accumulation in August 2020, MicroStrategy now holds a substantial 158,400 Bitcoin.
Increasing Engagement with the SEC
The SEC’s engagement with spot ETF filers, which has included 24 meetings so far, could be interpreted as a sign of the impending approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF. This high level of interaction suggests the SEC is actively considering the proposal, setting the stage for potential approval before the January 10, 2024 deadline.
Looking Ahead: A Pivotal Moment for Bitcoin
As the cryptocurrency community awaits the SEC’s decision, the anticipation builds around the potential impact of the spot Bitcoin ETF on the market. With Saylor’s predictions and the industry’s movements, the start of 2024 could mark a pivotal moment in Bitcoin’s journey, potentially ushering in a new era of mainstream adoption and market growth.