A new warning from Bloomberg Intelligence senior macro strategist Mike McGlone is turning heads across crypto markets.
In a recent LinkedIn post, McGlone argued that the long-standing cryptocurrency “bubble” has finally burst, and that Bitcoin could face an 85% correction from its highs. If that scenario plays out, he believes the price could fall as low as $10,000.
The call comes as Bitcoin trades around $69,000, struggling to hold the $65,000–$70,000 range in mid-February 2026.
The 85% Drawdown Scenario
McGlone’s thesis centers on historical precedent.
Bitcoin has previously experienced deep cyclical drawdowns exceeding 80% during major bear markets. Applying a similar percentage decline to the recent peak near $126,000 would place price in the $10,000 region.
He describes the current environment as a liquidity “siphon,” arguing that:
- Tight monetary conditions are draining speculative capital
- ETF-driven demand has cooled
- Institutional inflows are no longer accelerating
In his view, what previously supported price expansion is now fading.
Mean Reversion and the Dot-Com Comparison
McGlone frames Bitcoin as a highly speculative asset undergoing mean reversion — a process where stretched valuations revert toward historical norms.
He draws parallels to the 2000–2002 Dot-Com crash, suggesting that while blockchain technology may endure, current valuation levels across the crypto sector could be unsustainable.
The comparison implies structural survival but severe repricing.
Macro Pressure Still Intact
Another key pillar of the bearish outlook is macroeconomic policy.
With the Federal Reserve maintaining elevated interest rates into 2026, capital has rotated toward traditional defensive assets such as Treasury bills and gold. In a higher-for-longer environment, non-yielding risk assets like Bitcoin face headwinds.
The broader risk-off sentiment reinforces the technical weakness already visible in Bitcoin’s multi-week decline and its test of the 50-week simple moving average.
Extreme Tail Risk or Real Threat?
While many market participants view $10,000 as an extreme tail-risk scenario, the warning reflects a growing faction of institutional bears who believe the cycle has shifted into contraction.
For Bitcoin to invalidate that narrative, it would need to stabilize above major structural support and reclaim lost macro trend levels.
For now, McGlone’s message is clear: in a tightening liquidity cycle, speculative excess rarely corrects gently.
