Bitcoin has slipped 14% since its October 6 high, testing key support zones as analysts point to a possible “dip before the rip.”
Early-Month Pattern and Market Timing
Trader Daan Crypto Trades noted that Bitcoin often sets its monthly high or low within the first 6 to 15 days. For November, the current high was recorded on November 2 and the low on November 3, suggesting the market may already be forming its monthly base. “It’s worth watching this week’s action closely,” he said, highlighting how these early patterns have repeated for nearly two years.
Long-Term Structure Remains Intact
Analyst PlanC echoed a similar sentiment, describing the pullback as a textbook correction within Bitcoin’s bull-market support zone between the 200-day and 365-day SMAs. “Each dip into this zone since the $16K bear-market lows has led to large moves higher,” he said, noting the current range between $101,970 and $109,881 as critical support for continuation.
On-Chain Strength and Reduced Sell Pressure
Data from Santiment reinforces the bullish view, showing that Bitcoin is largely staying off exchanges. Over the past six months, 208,980 BTC have left centralized exchanges, a 1.08% reduction in total supply, indicating holders are less inclined to sell despite recent volatility. Historically, fewer coins on exchanges signal reduced short-term sell pressure and greater long-term conviction.
Analysts agree that while Bitcoin’s near-term volatility could persist, the combination of low exchange balances, strong support around the 365-day SMA, and early-month cycle positioning suggests this retracement may be a setup for the next leg higher.