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Bitcoin’s bullish momentum persists, with analysts assigning a 50% probability of the asset surpassing $140,000 this month, driven by record ETF inflows and declining exchange balances.
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Macroeconomic uncertainty looms, as the U.S. government shutdown delays critical data, leaving markets on edge and altcoins like ETH, XRP, and SOL under pressure while Bitcoin maintains its dominance.
Bitcoin is once again stealing the spotlight in the crypto market, holding firm near $122,000 after setting a new record high at $126,200 earlier this week. Despite a brief pullback, optimism remains strong, with analysts eyeing a potential surge toward $140,000 before the month ends.
Economist Timothy Peterson has projected a 50% probability that Bitcoin will finish October above $140,000, according to decade-long data simulations. “
There is a 50% chance Bitcoin finishes the month above $140k,
Peterson noted in a post on X, adding that there’s also a 43% chance it could close below $136,000, highlighting just how finely balanced the market’s next move might be.
Half of Bitcoin's October gains may have already happened, according to this AI simulation.
There is a 50% chance Bitcoin finishes the month above $140k
But there is a 43% chance Bitcoin finishes below $136k. pic.twitter.com/LPhFr0mry9— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) October 7, 2025
October, often dubbed “Uptober” for its historically bullish trend across financial markets, has seen Bitcoin climb nearly 10% since the start of the month. The rally has been powered by record ETF inflows and a steady exodus of coins from centralized exchanges. Exchange balances have now dropped to a six-year low of 2.83 million BTC, with over 170,000 coins withdrawn in the past month.
Meanwhile, U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted more than $60 billion since their approval in January 2024, including $3.2 billion in inflows last week, the second-largest weekly haul on record. This growing institutional appetite is keeping Bitcoin’s pullbacks shallow, with trading desks suggesting that the “path of least resistance” remains upward.
“Options markets are pricing in a feral 5% chance for another 10% rally in the S&P 500 into year-end,” said Augustine Fan, head of insights at SignalPlus. “We saw little short liquidation on the recent gap up, suggesting participants are underweight with minimal risk exposures.”
This correlation between traditional equity optimism and Bitcoin’s rise underscores how broader market confidence continues to fuel the crypto bull run.
However, analysts warn that the current optimism faces headwinds. According to Nick Ruck of LVRG Research, “The crypto market is navigating a delicate balance between strong technical support and significant macroeconomic uncertainty.” The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has paused key data releases, leaving investors without new insights into inflation or growth, potentially constraining the Federal Reserve’s next move.
The coming weeks could prove decisive. With upcoming FOMC decisions and Mag-7 earnings reports, Bitcoin’s trajectory may hinge on whether new data reinforces or challenges the market’s bullish bias.
For now, $125,000 remains the key battleground. If ETF demand and whale accumulation continue, Bitcoin could yet extend its reign toward $140,000, even as Ether (ETH), XRP, and Solana (SOL) struggle to keep pace amid a volatile market backdrop.