A new chart shared by Michaël van de Poppe highlights a clear bullish divergence between Bitcoin and gold, a setup that has historically preceded periods of strong relative outperformance for Bitcoin.
Divergence Forms as Gold Weakens
The chart compares Bitcoin against Gold on the daily timeframe. While gold continues to trend lower, Bitcoin is no longer following it down. Instead, BTC has shifted into consolidation, with momentum indicators beginning to turn higher.
This divergence suggests selling pressure is fading on the Bitcoin side, even as gold remains under pressure. According to van de Poppe, this type of behavior often marks the early phase of a relative trend reversal rather than a short-lived bounce.
Historical Context Strengthens the Signal
Van de Poppe points to two previous periods where a similar divergence appeared:
- Q4 2022, which coincided with the end of Bitcoin’s bear market
- Q3 2024, shortly before Bitcoin accelerated toward the $100,000 area
In both cases, Bitcoin went on to outperform gold meaningfully in the months that followed. The current setup mirrors those earlier conditions closely, adding weight to the signal.
What the Chart Is Suggesting Now
The key takeaway from the chart is not immediate upside, but relative strength. Bitcoin holding steady while gold weakens implies capital may begin rotating away from traditional safe havens and back toward risk-on assets.
Van de Poppe frames this as the early stage of a larger rotation, rather than a one-day or one-week trade. If the divergence remains intact, the probability increases that Bitcoin leads the next phase of market performance versus gold.
In short, the chart is sending a familiar message: when gold fades and Bitcoin refuses to follow, history suggests the balance of power may be shifting.
