Bitcoin continues to hover above $107,000, showing resilience despite a week of macro-driven volatility. Analysts point to recurring trends and market sentiment that suggest the latest dip may mark the final post-FOMC shakeout before the next major move higher.
FOMC Volatility Repeats But This Time May Be Different
According to Ash Crypto, Bitcoin has repeated a consistent pattern since June: a short-term drop after every Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Each decline, spanning June through October, has been followed by a recovery phase, indicating algorithmic and institutional rebalancing after rate decisions.
“This could mark the final post-FOMC shakeout before the next major move,” Ash noted, as BTC once again tests the lower end of its four-month trading range.
Sentiment Data Points to Capitulation-Level Fear
On-chain analytics firm Santiment reports that Thursday’s dip to $107K triggered the highest level of fear among retail traders since mid-October. Social media mentions of sub-$100K predictions surged, mirroring conditions from previous bottoms where Bitcoin subsequently rebounded 12% or more within 10 days.
😨 Bitcoin's dip to $107K Thursday has led to a high amount of sub-$100K $BTC price predictions. In this chart:
🟦 $50K-$100K Calls
🟥 $150K-$200K CallsMarkets move opposite to the crowd's expectations, therefore a relief rally is probable while FUD is peaking like it is now. pic.twitter.com/slCuZALuE8
— Santiment (@santimentfeed) October 30, 2025
“Markets move opposite to the crowd’s expectations,” Santiment explained. “A relief rally is probable while FUD peaks like it is now.”
This sentiment divergence historically aligns with local bottom formations, suggesting the market may be oversold in the short term.
Gold Crashes Below $4K as Bitcoin ETFs See Inflows
Macro rotation appears to be playing in Bitcoin’s favor. As gold fell below $4,000, suffering its sharpest weekly drop since April, Bitcoin ETFs recorded $839 million in inflows, while gold ETFs lost over $4.1 billion in the same period, according to CryptosRus.
The shift echoes a longer-term correlation model shared by Merlijn The Trader, showing gold’s movements leading Bitcoin by 108 days. If the pattern continues, BTC could follow gold’s early-2025 recovery path toward new highs, with targets between $150K and $165K cited by JPMorgan analysts.
Outlook: Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Setup
Despite short-term volatility and weak U.S. spot demand, analysts agree that Bitcoin’s macro structure remains bullish. ETF inflows, decoupling from gold, and growing institutional exposure continue to support the thesis of an extended bull cycle.
If BTC can maintain support above $105K, a rebound toward $115K–$120K in early November appears increasingly likely, potentially setting the stage for the next leg of the cycle as fear gives way to renewed accumulation.
