Bitcoin’s performance in early 2026 has placed the current quarter among the weakest starts in the asset’s history.
Data from a historical returns table shows that Bitcoin is down approximately 18.3% in Q1 2026, making it the fourth-worst first quarter on record.
The chart from Coinglass, tracks Bitcoin’s quarterly returns from 2013 through 2026,is highlighting how the digital asset has historically experienced large swings in performance depending on the stage of the market cycle.
Q1 2026 Ranks Among Weakest Starts
The –18.3% decline in Q1 2026 ranks behind only three more severe first-quarter drawdowns:
- 2018: –49.7%
- 2014: –37.42%
- 2015: –24.14%
Despite the current decline, the data shows that weak first quarters have occurred several times throughout Bitcoin’s history.
Interestingly, many of those years later saw strong recoveries during subsequent quarters.
Bitcoin’s Historical Quarterly Volatility
The table highlights how Bitcoin’s performance can vary dramatically throughout the year. For example:
- 2017: The market saw modest Q1 gains of 11.89%, followed by massive expansions later in the year, including +215% in Q4.
- 2020: After a negative Q1 of –10.83%, Bitcoin rebounded strongly with +42.33% in Q2 and +168% in Q4.
- 2024: Bitcoin posted a strong +68.68% gain in Q1, followed by mixed performance across the remaining quarters.
These examples illustrate how early-year performance does not necessarily determine the outcome of the entire cycle.
Average Quarterly Returns Remain Positive
Historical averages also show that Bitcoin’s strongest performance tends to occur later in the year.
Based on the dataset:
- Average Q1 return: +46.25%
- Average Q2 return: +27.11%
- Average Q3 return: +6.05%
- Average Q4 return: +77.07%
However, the median Q1 return is –2.26%, suggesting that early-year volatility is relatively common even during bullish market environments.
Market Watching for Potential Recovery
While the current quarter ranks among Bitcoin’s weakest openings, historical data shows that negative Q1 performance has not always prevented strong rallies later in the year.
The coming quarters will determine whether 2026 follows a similar pattern or continues to diverge from historical market cycles.
