Bitcoin on Thin Ice: Analyst Benjamin Cowen Forecasts Double-Digit Drop Pre-Halving

• Benjamin Cowen, a leading crypto analyst, predicts bearish market behavior for Bitcoin, suggesting it will stick within a $12,000 to $35,000 range in 2023.
• Despite current market optimism, Cowen remains skeptical that Bitcoin will sustain its 20-week SMA as support going into Q4 of the pre-halving year.

Decoding the 2023 Crypto-Sentiments: A Bear in Bull’s Clothing?

Benjamin Cowen, whose crypto analyses command the attention of a whopping 786,000 YouTube subscribers, pours cold water on the recent market buoyancy surrounding Bitcoin (BTC). This comes as a contrarian perspective at a time when the broader crypto-market has shown signs of recovery.

Drawing upon historical data, Cowen asserts that Bitcoin is prone to bearish tendencies during each pre-halving year. His skepticism places into question the prevailing narrative that Bitcoin could maintain its 20-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) as a support base as we segue into the last quarter of 2023.

“Will it be different this time? I highly doubt it,”

states Cowen.

The Anatomy of a Bearish Forecast: Demystifying SMA and Halving Cycles

For the uninitiated, the Simple Moving Average (SMA) is a calculation that smooths out price data by creating an average price over a specific number of time periods. In the world of crypto trading, maintaining above the 20-week SMA is generally seen as a bullish indicator.

Conversely, halving events in the Bitcoin network, where block rewards for miners are slashed in half, traditionally lead to an uptick in price due to the reduced supply of new coins. However, Cowen argues that the year leading up to such halving events often exhibits a different behavior, painting a less rosy outlook.

Probing the Price Corridors: Where Lies the Bottom?

Cowen firmly projects that Bitcoin will be caged within a price range of $12,000 to $35,000 for the remainder of the year. At the time of this reporting, Bitcoin trades at $27,448, leading Cowen to believe that the cryptocurrency is more likely to tread downwards, rather than break through the upper barrier.

Lending granularity to his forecast, he identifies the top boundary by a price point reached in May 2022 and the bottom by a price established in November 2020.

“I don’t foresee the price of Bitcoin going outside these bounds in 2023. Lower than $12,000 is unlikely,”

Cowen avers.

The analyst further postulates that the yearly high for Bitcoin might have already been set around $31,800 in July.

“We’re more likely to be on a downtrend for the rest of the year,”

he concludes.