Bitcoin may be approaching a major cyclical bottom, according to new on-chain data highlighted by Crypto Rover and CryptoQuant. A combination of historically reliable metrics, including Net Unrealized Profit (NUP) and the Bull Score Index, suggests that current conditions closely resemble previous bottom-formation periods, even as price continues to hover around $104,000.
NUP Flashes a Rare Bottom Signal
The Net Unrealized Profit (NUP) chart shared by Crypto Rover shows Bitcoin’s unrealized profit levels falling back to the long-term support zone near 0.47, a level historically associated with macro bottoms.
Across the past two years, Bitcoin touched this zone during three major capitulation events, in early 2024, late 2024, and April 2025. Each of those dips preceded a significant upward reversal. The current NUP reading has once again reached this same green support band, marked by a fourth red circle on the chart.
This indicates that market profitability is extremely low relative to historical norms, a condition that often signals exhaustion among sellers and improving long-term risk-reward for buyers.
What makes this notable is that Bitcoin’s price is still far above prior cycle lows, yet profitability metrics have reverted to levels seen only during deep corrections. This disconnect often forms when investors hold through drawdowns rather than selling, compressing unrealized profit margins.
Bull Score Index Plunges to 20 – Level Seen Only During Extreme Bear Conditions
CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index has fallen to 20, marking one of the lowest readings since 2023. This index measures the strength of bullish conditions by tracking spot demand, liquidity growth, and investor activity.
Historically:
- Readings above 60 reflect bullish conditions
- Readings below 40 reflect bearish conditions
- Readings near 20 reflect extreme bearish pricing environments
The current drop to 20 places Bitcoin deep in the “bearish zone” on the heatmap overlay, aligning with phases where market sentiment was highly pessimistic, yet also where long-term buyers accumulated aggressively.
CryptoQuant attributes the decline primarily to:
- Weak spot demand
- Slowing stablecoin liquidity inflows
- A broad cooldown in risk appetite
Looking at the chart, previous stretches of a low Bull Score often coincided with Bitcoin selling off into a final bottom before major rebounds. These include early 2023, late 2024, and a short pocket in mid-2025.
Now, the Bull Score is again signaling washed-out conditions.
Price Action Aligns With On-Chain Indicators
Bitcoin’s price is currently trading around $104,900, sitting well above the prior cycle lows yet exhibiting a structure typical of late-stage corrections. The volatility around the NUP support zone further reinforces the likelihood of bottom-formation behavior.
Even though the market remains tense, these two independent metrics, profitability compression and collapsing bullish momentum, have historically converged only near significant bottoms.
Is a Reversal Imminent?
The data does not guarantee an immediate rally, but it provides a compelling case that Bitcoin may be nearing the exhaustion phase of its correction. In past cycles, when NUP touched its lower bound while the Bull Score sat at extreme lows, Bitcoin reversed strongly within weeks.
If the pattern repeats, the current setup could mark the “accumulation window” that long-term investors typically seek.
However, a breakdown of the NUP support band or a prolonged stay in the bearish Bull Score range could extend volatility before recovery begins.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s on-chain indicators are flashing some of the strongest bottom signals seen in the past 24 months. Net Unrealized Profit has returned to its historical demand zone, while the Bull Score Index shows extreme bearish sentiment driven by weakening spot demand and slowing liquidity.
If history rhymes, the market may be approaching a pivotal turning point.
