According to CryptoQuant data, Bitcoin long-term holder (LTH) spending has risen sharply, approaching levels historically seen near major market inflection points.
The 30-day sum of LTH spending is once again nearing readings recorded during previous cycle peaks, when dormant coins re-entered circulation after long holding periods.
The charts show that similar spending surges occurred in 2013 (0.9M BTC), 2017 (1.4M BTC), and early 2021 (1.0M BTC). In the current cycle, LTH spending has climbed back toward ~0.9M BTC, placing it in the same historical zone as those earlier late-cycle phases.
Exchange-Related Transfers Are Driving the Spike
What makes this cycle different is where the spending is coming from. The breakdown between exchange-related activity and other transfers shows that a large portion of the recent spike is linked to exchange flows, rather than direct distribution into the open market.
CryptoQuant highlights that November 2025 saw LTH spending spike to 1.55M BTC, largely due to Coinbase internal transfers. When exchange-related flows are excluded, LTH spending remains elevated but drops back to around 0.9M BTC, aligning closely with prior cycle peaks rather than exceeding them.
This distinction matters. Exchange-linked transfers suggest operational or custodial movements, not outright panic selling. It points to measured liquidity provision, not aggressive capitulation.
Profit-Taking Looks Controlled, Not Exhaustive
From a macro on-chain perspective, the charts suggest long-term holders are gradually supplying liquidity into strong demand, rather than exiting the market aggressively. Historically, this type of behavior appears late in bull cycles, when experienced holders begin distributing into strength while maintaining overall confidence.
Importantly, this phase does not automatically signal an immediate market top. Instead, past cycles show it often precedes a transition from rapid expansion into consolidation and higher volatility, as supply slowly increases and the scarcity premium weakens.
What the Data Implies Going Forward
CryptoQuant’s data suggests Bitcoin is entering a late-cycle transition, not a structural breakdown. Long-term holders are active, but their behavior remains controlled and partially operational. Whether this phase evolves into healthy redistribution or sharper volatility will depend on ongoing demand absorption, particularly from institutional and ETF flows.
If demand remains resilient, elevated LTH spending may support a stable redistribution phase. If not, history shows this type of activity can mark the start of a range-bound and more volatile market regime.
