According to a report shared by CryptoQuant, Bitcoin is entering a cautiously optimistic phase as price consolidates near a critical technical and on-chain inflection zone.
On the weekly chart, Bitcoin’s 21-week SMA and 50-week SMA remain compressed near a crossover area, keeping the broader trend unresolved. While the risk of a death cross has not fully disappeared, strong institutional buying over the past week has helped stabilize short-term momentum and prevent further downside acceleration.
The most important level to watch remains $101,500, which aligns with the weekly 21 SMA.
CryptoQuant describes this zone as the current “resistance red line”, acting as a clear divider between bullish and bearish regimes. A decisive breakout and sustained hold above this level would materially improve the probability of trend continuation to the upside.
From an on-chain perspective, the structure has improved meaningfully. Long-term holder (LTH) selling pressure has eased, with behavior shifting back toward accumulation rather than distribution. At the same time, large miners have shown strong post-halving resilience, holding onto supply instead of distributing coins into the market. This combination suggests that supply-side pressure has largely been exhausted, removing a major headwind seen in earlier phases.
However, overhead resistance remains dense. In addition to the $101.5K technical barrier, $99.4K, the Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price, represents another critical level. This zone contains a high concentration of previously trapped supply, meaning rallies into this area may still face selling as short-term holders look to exit at breakeven.
CryptoQuant concludes that the bull market has not officially resumed until Bitcoin can reclaim and hold above $101.5K with convincing volume. Until that confirmation occurs, range trading remains the most prudent strategy, offering a balanced approach to risk and reward while the market awaits a decisive breakout signal.
