Bitcoin has reached one of the most critical technical levels of the entire cycle, with several major indicators converging at the same moment.
After 2.5 years of climbing within a rising parallel channel, the price is now retesting the channel’s base, a point historically associated with decisive reversals or brutal breakdowns. Analysts across X highlight that this zone is shaping up to be a “hero or zero” moment, as buyers and sellers battle for control.
The Channel Retest: A Make-or-Break Level
Merlijn The Trader shows Bitcoin touching the lower boundary of its multi-year ascending channel, the same trendline that defined all major higher-lows since 2023. A bounce here would preserve the macro uptrend and open the door for a renewed surge, while a confirmed breakdown risks triggering widespread capitulation.
HERO OR ZERO MOMENT FOR BITCOIN.
2.5 years inside this channel.
We’re now testing the base.This is where winners step in.
Or the crowd runs.Bounce here? It’s liftoff.
Breakdown? Expect max pain.This is the line that defines the cycle.
Don’t blink. pic.twitter.com/lXsK8HkxKY— Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader) November 29, 2025
The importance of this level is amplified by market context: price is testing long-term trend support in the middle of elevated volatility, weaker sentiment, and intense selling pressure from large holders.
New Whales Are Underwater – A Rare Capitulation Signal
CryptoQuant data reveals a significant shift beneath the surface: Bitcoin closed below the Realized Price of New Whales for the first time since April 2022.
This metric tracks the average cost basis of major new entrants holding 1k+ BTC. Historically:
- When price stays above this line, whales are in profit and accumulation is strong.
- When price dips below it, capitulation pressure spikes.
Two highlighted periods in the chart tell the story clearly:
- April 2025 ATL – Price reclaimed New Whale RP, triggering a multi-month rally.
- October–November 2025 drop – Price fell back below the RP, showing fresh large holders in loss.
This break below their cost basis now sets up a structural bottoming region, matching the behavior of past major cycle resets.
7 Million BTC Now in Loss – Matching Post-ATH Stress Levels
Another chart shows Bitcoin’s Supply in Loss surging to around 7 million BTC, the same level seen after the all-time highs of 2021 and 2025.
For context:
- At the 2025 ATH in April, only 5 million BTC were in loss.
- Today, after the autumn correction, 7 million BTC are underwater again — a sign of broad market pain.
Historically, such spikes in supply-in-loss have marked exhaustion points where forced selling fades and long-term capital steps in.
AVWAP Levels Tell the Same Story: Extreme Stress Meets Structural Support
A third chart tracking price versus several AVWAP anchors (from the 2025 ATL, Trump’s election, 2025 ATH, and Bitcoin’s fourth halving) shows that Bitcoin recently broke below nearly every major anchored VWAP except one – the AVWAP anchored to the Bitcoin halving, which once again caught price exactly as it did during the March bottom.
This alignment is rare and signals that algorithmic systems and high-timeframe traders are defending the same zone simultaneously.
“Max Value” Zone – Where New Cycles Are Born
CryptosRUs describes the current conditions as Bitcoin entering “max value territory,” pointing out:
- The latest drop was more violent beneath the hood than the February flush.
- Long-term holders and New Whales are simultaneously underwater, a historically powerful reset condition.
- AVWAP from the halving continues to hold, anchoring the market structure.
Structurally, these confluences point to a region where long-term accumulation historically restarts. Every major previous cycle saw similar resets before a sustained rally.
Final Takeaway
Across technical channels, on-chain metrics, whale cost bases, supply-in-loss data, and AVWAP structures, Bitcoin is testing a cluster of cycle-defining support levels. If this zone holds, history suggests it could mark the beginning of the next major leg upward. If it fails, the market could face one final wave of capitulation before recovery takes shape.
The next few days will determine which outcome unfolds.