Crypto analyst Lark Davis shared a stark assessment of Bitcoin’s market structure, warning that according to the traditional 4-year cycle model, Bitcoin has now entered bear market territory.
Davis highlighted that Bitcoin’s current drawdown matches the phase in previous cycles where momentum peaked and a multi-month decline followed.
He outlined two possible interpretations: either Bitcoin has broken away from the historical 4-year cycle entirely, or the market has indeed started a new bearish phase. Despite the severity of the recent downturn, Davis noted he is leaning toward the idea that the cycle framework may simply be evolving rather than collapsing.
According to the classic 4-year cycle, Bitcoin just entered bear market territory.
This could only mean one thing.
Either the 4-year cycle is dead, or we've just entered a bear market.
Given the macro backdrop and how this market has evolved, I'm leaning toward the former… pic.twitter.com/T4Tld8NGL8
— Lark Davis (@TheCryptoLark) November 19, 2025
The accompanying Glassnode chart shows Bitcoin’s performance compared to prior cycles, with the 2025 trajectory now diverging sharply from the classic post-halving uptrend. Davis pointed to the broader macro environment, including liquidity pressures, regulatory uncertainty, and shifting ETF flows, as key factors influencing this deviation.
He emphasized that while the chart signals a textbook “cycle top followed by retracement,” the changing market structure means investors may be witnessing a transition rather than a repeat of past patterns.
