Across every major cycle in Bitcoin’s history, the bottom has arrived approximately 23 months after the all-time high. Bitcoin peaked in October 2025. The 23-month window opens now.
What the Chart Shows
The monthly Bitcoin chart, shared by analyst Crypto Tice, maps four ATH-to-bottom sequences, each marked with a green horizontal bracket measuring 23 months. The first covers the 2013 peak through the 2015 bottom.
Bitcoin has bottomed ~23 months after every major ATH.
We just entered that exact window.
Every. Single. Cycle.
The pattern is not random.
The timing is not a coincidence.This is when downside momentum exhausts.
This is when sellers run out of fuel.
This is when the… pic.twitter.com/IWYJTm7qGH— Crypto Tice (@CryptoTice_) March 8, 2026
The second marks 2017 through the 2018 to 2019 low. The third runs from the 2021 peak to the 2022 to 2023 bear market bottom. The fourth bracket sits at the right edge of the chart, starting at the October 2025 all-time high and projecting the same 23-month window forward.
Three complete cycles. Three bottoms. All arriving at the same approximate timing after the preceding peak.
Crypto Tice’s Argument
Crypto Tice posted the analysis on March 8, 2026. His case is straightforward. The pattern is structural, not coincidental. Around the 23-month mark, downside momentum exhausts. Sellers deplete their fuel. The risk/reward ratio shifts in favour of buyers.
He is deliberate about the limits of the argument. History does not guarantee outcomes. What it does, in his framing, is shift probabilities. Right now those probabilities are the most favourable they have been in two years.
That is the claim. Not that the bottom is in. That the window where bottoms historically form has opened.
What the Pattern Cannot Settle
Three data points is a consistent pattern. It is not a law. The macro environment entering this window differs from prior cycles in meaningful ways, including stagflation concerns, geopolitical pressure, and potential forced selling from corporate treasury holders. Those factors were not present in the same form during the 2018 or 2022 bottoms.
The timing is right. Whether the cycle respects it is still an open question.
