According to Merlijn The Trader, Bitcoin has now recorded its fifth Golden Cross, following four previous occurrences that were each followed by strong price advances. His chart highlights past rallies of 87%, 47%, 78%, and 33%, all emerging after similar crossover signals.
Low Conviction, Strong Signal
The chart shows Bitcoin sitting at a familiar technical inflection point. Previous Golden Crosses occurred during periods of doubt or hesitation, not during euphoric conditions. This pattern suggests that the signal tends to appear before confidence returns, not after.
Merlijn notes that breakout odds are currently the highest they’ve been in weeks, despite subdued participation. This divergence between price structure and sentiment has historically been a key ingredient in larger directional moves.
What the Golden Cross Is Signaling Now
A Golden Cross forms when a shorter-term moving average crosses above a longer-term one, often interpreted as a shift toward bullish momentum. In prior cycles, this signal appeared early, before widespread optimism returned.
What makes the current setup notable is the contrast between the signal strength and market psychology. As Merlijn points out, “no one believes it.” The crowd remains quiet, even as the technical structure aligns with earlier breakout phases.
Why Skepticism Matters
Market disbelief plays a critical role in the Golden Cross narrative. When traders remain cautious, leverage stays limited and positioning cleaner. That environment allows trends to develop more sustainably rather than being fueled by short-term speculation.
In this case, the Golden Cross is not being celebrated – it is being questioned. That alone separates it from late-cycle signals that appear after markets are already overheated.
A Quiet Signal With Loud Implications
Bitcoin’s latest Golden Cross arrives without hype, excitement, or widespread agreement. The crowd is hesitant, participation is restrained, and conviction is low.
But historically, those conditions have been exactly when this signal mattered most.
Whether this fifth Golden Cross follows the path of its predecessors remains to be seen, but once again, the signal is flashing while belief lags behind.
