- Options data shows a defensive stance, with increased demand for puts, suggesting traders expect short-term volatility or price dips.
- If shutdown delays key economic data, the Federal Reserve may pause rate hikes, potentially supporting a stronger Q4 for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin entered October with its price hovering around $116,000, but current market sentiment remains split as the U.S. government began a shutdown following a political deadlock over funding.
Historical precedent provides little clarity: out of five prior shutdowns since 2013, Bitcoin rallied in only three. At the same time, gold set a new high while S&P Futures slipped, leaving traders to assess whether Bitcoin will more closely follow the safe-haven narrative or track broader equity weakness.
Analysts are divided on the near-term direction. According to Greg Magadini, Director at Amberdata, options market data points to a defensive stance, with risk reversal skew tilting negative on short-term contracts.
This means there is greater demand for put options, reflecting increased hedging activity and cautious outlooks from traders for the next week or two.
“The RR-Skew is merely “leaning” negative. To me, this remains the play going into the next week or two. A lot of reasons to be defensive here and crypto options plays aren’t crowded for defensive trade, in my opinion.”
A pullback remains feasible, especially given that major resistance at $118,000 continues to cap rallies. If Bitcoin cannot break above that level, it may retest lower support zones between $107,000 and $112,000.
However, some indicators offer a more optimistic view for the final quarter of the year. Swissblock analysts noted that the Short-Term Holder Relative Unrealized Profit metric is approaching a threshold often associated with local bottoms in past cycles.
In addition, if the shutdown delays the U.S. Jobs Report, the Federal Reserve could opt to keep rates steady at its late October meeting. This outcome would support the structural case for a Q4 recovery.
For now, Bitcoin’s direction depends on the resolution of the shutdown and how quickly markets receive new economic data. Until then, price remains boxed between resistance near $118,000 and layered support at lower levels, with traders prepared for both renewed advances and deeper consolidation.
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $117,414, up 2.94% in the last 24 hours. The cryptocurrency has risen 4.8% this week and 8.44% this month, extending gains of 41% over six months and 85% year-over-year.
Its market capitalization is $2.34 trillion, with daily trading volume at $64.27 billion, still under its all-time high of $124,517.
Recent developments underscore renewed institutional momentum. ZOOZ Power Ltd. purchased 525 BTC for $60 million to build a corporate treasury, while Japan’s Metaplanet acquired 5,268 BTC worth $623 million, boosting its total holdings to over 30,800 BTC. This positions Metaplanet as the fourth-largest publicly traded Bitcoin treasury, highlighting how corporate accumulation continues to drive long-term supply scarcity.
Technically, Bitcoin closed September up 5.3%, pushing above $115,000 to start October. Traders now target $117,000–$118,000 as the next key resistance, while support lies at $105,000–$102,500. ETHNews analysts view the current level as a battleground between bulls aiming for new all-time highs and bears warning of distribution patterns forming.
Broader sentiment has been fueled by speculation around U.S. policy and the government’s management of its 200,000 BTC Strategic Reserve, alongside ETF flows that remain highly influential. ETHNews analysts even suggest that Bitcoin could enter a hyper-aggressive bullish wave if institutional accumulation continues at its current pace.
ETHNews Prediction: If BTC holds above $115,000–$117,000, it could push toward $120,000–$122,000 in the short term. A breakdown below $115,000 risks a correction back to $108,000–$110,000 before another bullish attempt.
