Bitcoin is slipping into one of its coldest post-halving phases in years, with Citigroup warning that the market is experiencing a “halving-season chill” as sentiment collapses and ETF money exits at a scale not seen since early 2024.
Since October 10, nearly $4 billion has poured out of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, a wave of selling that has accelerated Bitcoin’s decline and driven fear back into the market.
Citi says November alone has seen roughly $3.5 billion in redemptions, putting the month on pace to rival February 2024’s record outflows. BlackRock’s IBIT ETF has been hit the hardest, shedding more than $2 billion. Citi’s models suggest that every $1 billion in ETF outflows typically pushes Bitcoin down by about 3.4%, creating a feedback loop where withdrawals trigger price drops, which then trigger more withdrawals.
Post-Halving Weakness Adds Pressure
The downturn coincides with the second year of the Bitcoin halving cycle, historically its weakest. After two blockbuster years in 2023 and 2024, Bitcoin is now following a familiar post-halving pattern marked by fading momentum, tightening liquidity, and sharper reactions to macro stress.
The October futures wipeout also left a deep dent in sentiment, and the Fear and Greed Index has now fallen to 11, signaling extreme fear. Even long-term holders, usually a stabilizing force, have begun trimming positions.
Macro Stress and Investor Caution Intensify the Decline
Citi highlights that broader macro uncertainty is amplifying the sell-off. Bitcoin is underperforming several of its usual drivers, reflecting a more cautious environment across risk assets. The mix of ETF pressure, cyclical softness, and macro drag has pushed Bitcoin toward Citi’s year-end bear-case target of $82,000.
What Could Trigger a Market Reversal?
Despite the gloom, Citi sees a few potential catalysts. A rebound in equities could quickly lift sentiment across digital assets, and progress on U.S. digital-asset legislation may restore confidence among institutions. Some analysts also suggest that the ETF outflows may be tactical rebalancing rather than a long-term structural withdrawal.
For now, however, Bitcoin remains stuck in a uniquely ETF-driven cooling phase, one that has reshaped the traditional halving-cycle playbook.
