Bitcoin slipped to $107,944, down 3.8% in 24 hours, as short-term selling pressure weighed on the market despite long-term cycle models signaling continued strength. The correction follows a week of mixed signals between U.S. spot demand and broader on-chain sentiment.
U.S. Buyers Pull Back as Coinbase Premium Turns Negative
According to Coin Bureau, the Coinbase Premium Index, a key metric tracking the price difference between U.S. and global exchanges, has turned negative for the first time in weeks. The move suggests slowing demand among U.S. investors, with fewer buy orders on Coinbase compared to offshore platforms.
Historically, negative readings in this index have coincided with local corrections or consolidation phases, often before renewed inflows from institutional desks.
The “Rainbow Roadmap” Cycle Still Intact
Despite the short-term drop, trader Merlijn The Trader believes Bitcoin remains firmly within its long-term growth arc, following what he calls the “Rainbow Roadmap.” The model, which has accurately mapped Bitcoin’s last three major cycles, shows BTC climbing out of the “green zone” that has historically preceded euphoric rallies.
“Every bounce from green led to euphoria,” Merlijn explained. “We’re climbing the arc again. The noise is short-term. The cycle is not.”
If the model holds, the next expansion phase could target highs between $160,000 and $180,000, similar to previous cycle trajectories.
Market Fundamentals Remain Resilient
On CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin’s market capitalization stands at $2.15 trillion, with $77.35 billion in daily volume, up 27% in 24 hours, reflecting active volatility and profit-taking rather than structural weakness. Bitcoin’s circulating supply is now 19.94 million BTC, inching closer to its fixed 21 million cap.
Analysts note that despite the current dip, macro conditions remain favorable, with lower global inflation readings and growing institutional participation through ETPs and fund products, most recently Nordea’s announcement of a Bitcoin-linked ETP for European investors.
Outlook: Short-Term Pullback, Long-Term Strength
While short-term sentiment shows cooling momentum in U.S. spot markets, long-term holders and cycle models continue to support a bullish trajectory. With Bitcoin still tracking historical patterns that preceded previous euphoric phases, analysts argue that the correction could be a healthy reset before the next major leg higher.
If Bitcoin maintains support above $105,000, technical analysts expect the broader uptrend to remain intact heading into November’s first trading week.