- Bitcoin price maintains $30,000 support despite lower-than-expected U.S. Consumer Price Index data for March.
- While Bitcoin’s rally is no longer driven by inflation, investors are focusing on potential recession risks following the banking crisis and macroeconomic warning signs.
Bitcoin price holds $30,000 support after the release of lower-than-expected U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, with investors shifting their focus to potential recession risks. Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience to FUD and continues to demonstrate positive momentum.
Bitcoin options expiry on April 14 shows that bulls are better positioned than bears, with $490 million in call (buy) options and $460 million in put (sell) options. Bears have been caught off guard, with less than 7% of their bets exceeding $29,000.
Bitcoin’s resilience in the face of FUD and the shift in focus to potential recession risks has created a favorable scenario for bulls. The most likely scenario on April 14 favors Bitcoin bulls, with their profits being used to reinforce the $30,000 support, while bears may consider waiting for additional actions from regulators as the macroeconomic scenario is currently bullish for supply-capped assets.
Warning signs of a macroeconomic downturn emerge
Several warning signs of a macroeconomic downturn have emerged, including the recent ISM Purchasing Managers Index data falling to its lowest level since May 2020, Federal Reserve documents indicating a “mild recession” later this year, and commercial real estate prices falling 1.6% in February, the most since the 2008 financial crisis.
Bulls are expected to push Bitcoin above $30,500
The four most likely scenarios based on the current price action for the April 14 Bitcoin options expiry show that bulls are better positioned than bears. Bulls are expected to push Bitcoin above $30,500 on April 14 at 8:00 am UTC to profit an additional $100 million, while bears would need to pressure Bitcoin’s price below $29,000 in order to balance the scales.