- Social media sentiment for Bitcoin has hit a seven-month high, reflecting strong bullishness as BTC approaches its all-time high.
- Despite this optimism, some analysts suggest that retail expectations might delay a new surge, with historical patterns indicating a potentially weaker third quarter.
Bitcoin has recently been flirting with its all-time high, pushing past $110,000 several times this week. This activity has caused bullish sentiment on social media to reach its highest point in seven months, a level last seen around the time of President Donald Trump’s election win. This shift in public sentiment could be crucial for Bitcoin’s future.
Rising Optimism, But Caution Advised
As of June 11, there are 2.12 positive comments about Bitcoin for every negative one on social media platforms, according to crypto analytics platform Santiment. This is the highest ratio since November 6, the day after Trump’s presidential election.
Historically, Bitcoin’s price gains in this cycle have been largely due to big institutions and even countries adopting it, rather than everyday investors. A strong positive shift in how individual investors feel could give Bitcoin an extra boost.
Santiment’s data, which tracks comments on platforms like X, Reddit, Telegram, and others, showed 504.54 positive Bitcoin comments against 237.71 negative ones on June 11. This rise in sentiment comes as Bitcoin has repeatedly touched $110,000, indicating that retail has gotten bullish.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $107,694, down 1.74% in the last 24 hours. This is about 3% below its all-time high of $112,000 reached on May 22. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, another measure of market sentiment, also shows bullishness with a score of 71 out of 100, putting it in the greed zone.
However, this is still far from the peak score of 94 seen on November 22, which followed Trump’s election and Bitcoin’s surge from $67,700 to $99,250. Interestingly, despite the social media buzz, Google search interest for Bitcoin still hasn’t returned to high levels, suggesting that widespread public interest hasn’t fully come back.
What the Analysts Say
Brian Quinlivan, an analyst at Santiment, has noted that Bitcoin often moves in the opposite direction of retail’s expectations. He explained that the current widespread anticipation for Bitcoin’s next all-time high on social media might mean that another big surge isn’t quite ready to happen yet.
Looking at historical data, the third quarter of each year has typically been Bitcoin’s weakest since 2013, with an average return of just over 6%. In contrast, the following quarter has been historically the strongest, delivering an average return of over 85%.
Another concern for traders is the current uncertainty in the global economy. One analyst, Dawson, pointed out that despite political pressure for interest rate cuts, the U.S. Federal Reserve seems likely to keep rates steady.
This could make Bitcoin less appealing for investors looking for big returns. Dawson also suggested that overall crypto trading volume may decrease in the near term, as many investors in the Northern Hemisphere take summer vacations. This seasonal slowdown could lead to Bitcoin’s price moving sideways or even seeing sharp pullbacks, as some traders might sell off their earlier gains.