CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has flagged a potential structural shift in Bitcoin’s short-term holder (STH) cycle, warning that support levels may now be turning into resistance.
His latest chart shows Bitcoin’s realized price for short-term holders, a key metric indicating average on-chain cost basis, being repeatedly tested, each time with diminishing strength.
“Each test weakens conviction,” Maartunn wrote, noting that Bitcoin is likely at step 4 of the STH cycle, where support breaks and traders begin to sell at breakeven levels.
Historically, this phase often signals exhaustion among recent buyers, who stop adding to their positions after multiple failed rebound attempts.
The chart shows a progression in sentiment: from “I’ll buy more” when prices touched support, to “I’ll take profit earlier next time,” and finally to “I’m not adding anymore”, suggesting that bullish momentum is fading near $114K–$116K.
While the broader trend remains intact, Maartunn’s analysis implies that Bitcoin could enter a short-term consolidation phase unless buyers regain confidence. If the realized price flips decisively into resistance, analysts warn it could trigger a deeper retest of the $110K zone before the next major rally attempt.