- BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin’s price to fall below $40,000, influenced by the US Treasury’s upcoming quarterly refunding announcement.
- Hayes’ bearish sentiment is further fueled by macroeconomic factors, including a strong US dollar and rising US treasury yields.
In a recent development that has sent ripples through the cryptocurrency market, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has shared a pessimistic forecast for Bitcoin‘s price, predicting a fall below the $40,000 mark. This projection comes amidst a backdrop of macroeconomic turbulence and in anticipation of the US Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement.
Hayes’ Bearish Stance on Bitcoin
Arthur Hayes, a figure synonymous with cryptocurrency insights, expressed his concerns about Bitcoin‘s immediate future in a post dated January 22. In his statement, Hayes remarked,
“BTC looks mad heavy. I think we break $40k.”
He indicated action on his part by going long on some March 29 puts with a $35k strike, signaling his expectation of a further drop.
Hayes’ prediction is partially grounded in the impending announcement from the US Treasury, scheduled for January 31. He anticipates that comments from US Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen could exacerbate the downward trajectory of Bitcoin‘s price. Market participants are keenly waiting to see if this event will be a turning point for Bitcoin, potentially catalyzing a shift in momentum.
In a broader context, Hayes has noted a decoupling between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 Index post the US Bitcoin ETF, hinting at underlying liquidity issues in the market. His observations come as traders across the globe brace for significant macroeconomic updates.
Market Reactions and Macro Influences
Following Hayes’ statement, the Bitcoin market has seen notable movements. Coinglass data revealed a substantial $140 million in liquidations over the last 24 hours, affecting over 63,000 traders. The largest single liquidation order, valued at $3.20 million, was on OKX’s ETH-USD-SWAP. Bitcoin‘s price notably dipped to $40,027, with a trading volume spike of 72% within the same period, indicating a heightened trader interest in response to the market shift.
On a macroeconomic scale, a strengthening US dollar and rising US 10-year treasury yields are exerting additional pressure on Bitcoin. The US dollar index (DXY) has seen a reversal back to 103.50 from 101 earlier in January, reflecting the broader economic forces at play that are influencing Bitcoin’s price dynamics.
As the cryptocurrency community awaits the US Treasury’s announcement and monitors these macroeconomic developments, Arthur Hayes’ forecast serves as a critical point of reference for investors and traders navigating the volatile crypto landscape.