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Arthur Hayes argues Bitcoin’s price is now driven by global liquidity, not the four-year halving cycle.
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Peter Brandt warns that if Bitcoin breaks its cycle timing, the resulting move could be “dramatic,” with potential upside beyond $150K.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and veteran trader Peter Brandt, two of the most respected voices in the crypto world, may not see eye to eye on why Bitcoin moves, but they both agree on one thing: the next move will be nothing short of dramatic.
In a new blog post, Hayes declared the end of the famous four-year Bitcoin cycle, saying it’s “dead” not because halving events no longer matter, but because monetary policy now drives the market, not time-based patterns.
“As the four-year anniversary of this fourth cycle is upon us, traders wish to apply the historical pattern and forecast an end to this bull run,” Hayes wrote. “But this time, it will fail.”
According to Hayes, past Bitcoin cycles didn’t end because of halvings, they ended when global liquidity tightened. He points to a different landscape today: the U.S. Treasury has injected roughly $2.5 trillion into the economy through short-term Treasury issuance, while the Federal Reserve has already begun cutting rates, with two more cuts expected before year-end. “Money is getting cheaper and more plentiful,” Hayes said, predicting this environment will continue to fuel Bitcoin’s climb.
He also noted that China’s deflationary drag is fading, meaning U.S. monetary expansion can now drive Bitcoin higher without being offset by tighter Chinese liquidity.
Listen to our monetary masters in Washington and Beijing. They clearly state that money shall be cheaper and more plentiful. Therefore, Bitcoin continues to rise in anticipation of this highly probable future,
Hayes wrote.
Meanwhile, Brandt, who is famous for accurately calling multiple Bitcoin tops, agrees that something major is coming. In an interview this week, he said Bitcoin’s cycle timing suggests a potential bull market peak any day now, but warned that if it doesn’t top soon, the next leg could be “dramatic.”
Trends that violate the prevailing cyclic or seasonal nature of markets are typically the most dramatic,
Brandt noted. He remains 50/50 on the outcome, saying a counter-cyclical move could send Bitcoin to $150,000 or even $185,000.
The debate over Bitcoin’s four-year cycle has divided analysts. Some, like Glassnode and Rekt Capital, still see echoes of past behavior; others argue institutional adoption, ETFs, and sovereign-level interest have permanently altered the rhythm.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades around $122,000, up nearly 10% over the past month. Whether it follows the traditional pattern or breaks it entirely, both Hayes and Brandt seem to agree, the next move won’t be small.