A major technical pattern is resurfacing across the altcoin market, and it’s catching the attention of analysts who track long-term crypto cycles.
The TOTAL3 chart, which represents the entire altcoin market cap excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, is showing the same MACD bottoming zone observed just before the explosive altcoin seasons of 2017 and 2021.
While not a guarantee, the similarity is striking enough to raise the question: Is another altcoin surge forming beneath the surface?
A Familiar Macro Setup Is Emerging Again
The chart highlights a sequence of conditions that previously led to powerful altcoin expansions. The MACD structure, trend compression, and multi-year resistance levels are all aligning in a way that mirrors the market’s most dramatic altcoin cycles.
Several elements stand out:
- Price compression is nearing completion.
- A trend breakout appears close.
- Macro indicators resemble the pre-rally periods of past cycles.
- Market sentiment remains skeptical – often a feature of early-stage reversals.
Taken together, the setup suggests a strong altcoin phase would not be surprising if history continues to rhyme.
Reading the TOTAL3 Chart: Key Levels and Structure
The chart shows a long-term ascending structure that has been building since the 2018 bear-market bottom. Two specific features dominate the setup:
1. Multi-Year Resistance Line (2017 → 2021 → Now)
The same red diagonal resistance line that capped rallies in 2017 and 2021 has been approached again. Each previous touch preceded an altcoin cycle peak. Now, TOTAL3 is pressing against this line once more, suggesting a major decision point.
2. Symmetrical Price Compression
A large multi-year wedge has formed. Higher lows continue to push price upward, while horizontal resistance keeps the market capped. This compression often leads to a fast expansion once resistance breaks.
3. MACD Bottom Zone Reappears
The most notable signal is the MACD. The chart highlights three cycles:
- 2017: Deep MACD bottom followed by an explosive altseason.
- 2021: The same bottom structure appeared before the next major rally.
- 2025: The indicator has returned to that zone again.
This alignment doesn’t predict certainty, but in past cycles, identical conditions formed at the very beginning of market-wide altcoin expansions.
Why Skepticism Often Appears at Cycle Turning Points
Even with compelling similarities, many participants remain cautious. This skepticism is common when markets hover near long-term compression zones. Historically, the strongest expansions have unfolded when the market was unconvinced that anything major was about to happen.
The analyst notes that this is not a prediction, only a technical parallel drawn from the last two cycles. But the pattern is difficult to ignore.
What a Breakout Could Trigger
If TOTAL3 breaks and holds above the wedge resistance, the structure opens the door for what the chart labels as a potential 2025 altcoin season. This would mirror the behavior seen during the previous two MACD cycle lows.
If resistance rejects again, compression may continue, but the market is reaching a point where a major move becomes increasingly likely.
