ARB Climbs 9% Weekly, but Downtrend Structure Still Intact

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• A 1.87% supply unlock on July 16 could increase short-term selling pressure and create volatility near resistance.
• Arbitrum remains top Layer 2 by TVL, but competition from Base and zkSync is challenging user retention and capital flows.

Arbitrum (ARB) is trading at $0.3447 USDT, recording a solid +5.32% intraday gain, and continuing its short-term recovery trend.

The token is up +9.10% on the week, but its longer-term outlook remains bearish, with a −55.68% loss over the past six months and a −52.37% YTD performance, reflecting sustained downward pressure amid broader Layer 2 repricing.

Technically, ARB is rebounding from a key accumulation zone between $0.26–$0.30, supported by bullish engulfing candles and a recent breakout above a descending trendline. Current price action is testing the $0.35–$0.36 resistance range, with potential short-term continuation toward $0.40–$0.45 if momentum sustains.

A failure to break that resistance could result in a retest of $0.30 or a full retrace to $0.25, which aligns with historical volume nodes and liquidity pools.

On the fundamental front, Arbitrum is drawing renewed interest:

1. Robinhood’s integration of ARB has generated notable hype and speculative demand. The token saw a 16% pump last week following its listing and corresponding derivatives attention.
2. A token unlock of 1.87% of the ARB supply is scheduled for July 16, potentially introducing short-term supply-side pressure. Historically, such events have created volatility windows around unlock periods.
3. Arbitrum has confirmed multiple meetups and AMAs, including participation at EthCC 2025, indicating the project’s intent to remain visible within the developer ecosystem.
4. ETHNews analysts are watching ARB’s breakout attempt from a long-term descending channel, with multiple scenarios pointing toward a breakout to $0.70–$0.75 mid-term if macro market sentiment aligns.
5. The chain continues to lead the L2 TVL rankings, but faces increasing competition from Base and zkSync, pressuring user retention and capital efficiency.

The current structure reflects a momentum-driven bounce within a long-term downtrend. While speculative energy is returning, macro resistance levels and unlocking could cap upside unless major protocol-level developments or ecosystem incentives reignite conviction.