Despite the current crypto market downturn, a new analysis by CryptoElites suggests that conditions are aligning for the next Altcoin Season, drawing an uncanny resemblance to the setup that preceded the 2019 rally.
2019 vs 2025 – Same Ratio, Same Setup?
In 2019, the ETH/BTC ratio peaked at 1 BTC = 57 ETH, a level that marked the beginning of a major altcoin recovery after months of Bitcoin dominance. According to CryptoElites, that same ratio has now been reached again in 2025, right as the market is sliding and investor sentiment turns fearful.
The analyst argues that, historically, such conditions have often marked transition points rather than long-term tops. “History doesn’t repeat,” they wrote, “but it sure loves to rhyme.”
Altcoins Could Recover by Late November
Drawing comparisons between the 2019–2020 cycle and the present, CryptoElites believes the timing may once again favor altcoins:
- August 2020 = August 2025
- September–October 2020 = September–October 2025
- When 1 BTC = 57 ETH in 2019 → December 2019 saw a broad altcoin rebound
If this pattern holds, the analyst expects altcoins to start showing early signs of recovery by late November 2025. From there, a full-scale Altcoin Season could unfold in Q1 2026, provided Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) reaches around 64%and then begins to reverse.
Bearish Near-Term, Bullish Outlook
The analysis acknowledges that short-term risks remain high. If Bitcoin closes below $100,000 before year-end and fails to bounce, it would likely confirm the start of a broader bear phase, delaying any altcoin resurgence. However, if BTC stabilizes above that threshold, the setup for a rotation into altcoins becomes increasingly probable.
CryptoElites summarized the roadmap succinctly:
“Altcoins will rebound in November, BTC.D will rise again in December, and Altcoin Season should officially begin in Q1 2026.”
Why It Matters
The broader market remains under pressure, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 27 (“Fear”) and total market capitalization down more than 3% this week. Yet, even in downturns, capital rotations often occur quietly, Bitcoin typically rallies first, followed by Ethereum strength, and then by waves of capital flowing into smaller-cap assets.
If history rhymes once again, November’s weakness could mark the final shakeout before the next rotation, setting the stage for a new chapter in the crypto cycle.