Crypto trader Altcoin Sherpa shared a cautious but constructive take on the meme coin sector, arguing that while many popular meme tokens have been heavily damaged, their cycles may not be finished yet, especially if Bitcoin remains stable.
His core message is straightforward: several meme coins have already suffered such deep drawdowns that even a multi-x recovery from current levels would still leave them far below their previous all-time highs. Because of that, expectations should stay realistic. A full return to ATH levels is unlikely in the near term, but meaningful upside can still exist under the right market conditions.
What the Charts Are Showing
Looking across the charts he shared for tokens like PEPE, BONK, PENGU, and FARTCOIN, a common structure stands out. Each market shows a classic post-hype cycle: a sharp vertical advance, followed by a prolonged and aggressive downtrend. In most cases, price has already retraced the majority of the prior rally, flushing out late buyers and speculative excess.
So many memes got destroyed so badly that they could STILL go a few x from here and still not be close to ATH. I don't think you should expect any sort of ATH move for these but they still have a lot of upside left if btc is stable. $PEPE $FARTCOIN $BONK $PENGU pic.twitter.com/UU6Iyuaqwm
— Altcoin Sherpa (@AltcoinSherpa) January 4, 2026
Importantly, price action has begun to stabilize. Volatility has compressed, sell pressure has weakened, and trading ranges are tightening near long-term support zones. This kind of basing behavior often appears after capitulation phases, when forced sellers are largely exhausted.
Several charts also show price holding above prior demand areas, suggesting that downside momentum is fading. While there is no confirmed trend reversal yet, the absence of new lows despite broader market volatility is a constructive sign.
Why Bitcoin Stability Matters
Altcoin Sherpa emphasizes that any further upside depends heavily on Bitcoin staying stable. Meme coins tend to perform best during periods when Bitcoin is consolidating rather than trending aggressively. A calm Bitcoin environment allows speculative capital to rotate into higher-risk assets without fear of sudden market-wide drawdowns.
If Bitcoin were to enter a sharp correction, these meme coins would likely underperform again. But if Bitcoin continues to range, even modest inflows can generate large percentage moves due to how compressed these charts have become.
Upside Without ATH Expectations
The key takeaway is positioning, not hype. These meme coins do not need to revisit their all-time highs to deliver strong percentage gains. From deeply depressed levels, even partial recoveries can translate into multiples, while still remaining structurally bearish on higher timeframes.
This is why Altcoin Sherpa cautions against expecting an “ATH narrative.” The opportunity, if it appears, would likely come from relief rallies and mean reversion rather than a full speculative mania.
In short, the charts suggest damage has already been done, sellers are less aggressive, and upside is possible, but only in a controlled market environment, and only with tempered expectations.
