- Analysts are divided on when Ether ETFs might receive approval, following recent Bitcoin ETF approvals.
- Predictions range from as early as May 2023 to as late as 2026.
After the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, attention in the cryptocurrency sector has shifted to the potential approval of Ether ETFs. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recently postponed decisions on several spot Ether ETF applications, including those from major players like Fidelity and BlackRock. However, experts differ markedly in their predictions about when these Ether ETFs might get the nod.
A Range of Predictions
Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart is optimistic, estimating a 60% chance that the SEC might approve Ether ETFs as soon as May 2023. In contrast, TD Cowen anticipates a longer journey, not expecting approval until late 2025 or early 2026. They argue that SEC Chair Gary Gensler may apply lessons from Bitcoin ETFs to Ether ETFs and are cautious due to potential political repercussions from progressive Democrats.
Standard Chartered offers a more hopeful outlook, predicting approvals as likely on May 23, 2023. They suggest the SEC might replicate the process it used for Bitcoin ETFs, considering structural similarities between Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Bitcoin ETFs: A Precedent
The path to Bitcoin ETF approval was lengthy, involving multiple filings and a legal battle, culminating in a 3-2 SEC vote in favor. SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce has indicated that the agency might not want another court case before approving products like Ether ETFs and will likely “apply precedent,” though without a specific timeline.
TD Cowen remains confident that an Ether ETF will eventually be approved under Chair Gensler, while Standard Chartered and Seyffart believe the SEC will follow the Bitcoin ETF approval process.
Van Buren Capital’s general partner Scott Johnsson also views Ether ETF approval as almost guaranteed in the long term, but anticipates that the SEC may require more time to familiarize itself with Ethereum’s nuances compared to Bitcoin.
In summary, while the cryptocurrency community eagerly anticipates the approval of Ether ETFs, the timeline remains uncertain with experts providing varied forecasts. This period of speculation underscores the complexities and evolving nature of regulatory approaches to emerging digital asset classes.