The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at today’s FOMC meeting, a move that futures markets have already fully priced in. According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, traders assign a 99.9% probability to the target range being lowered from 4.00–4.25% to 3.75–4.00%, marking the central bank’s second rate cut of 2025.
Yet, as investors know, the move itself is not the story, it’s how the Fed frames the decision and how Chair Jerome Powell handles the post-meeting press conference that will set the market’s tone.
What to Watch in the Fed Statement
Markets will scrutinize the wording of the policy statement for signals about future easing. If officials describe the cut as a “mid-cycle adjustment,” that implies a one-off move to fine-tune conditions, a message that could keep equities and crypto in a holding pattern.
However, if the statement highlights “rising growth risks” or softening data, it would suggest that a series of rate cuts could follow. A dovish pivot of that sort would likely push two-year Treasury yields lower, weaken the U.S. dollar, and hint at a liquidity rebound across risk assets.
End of Quantitative Tightening?
Traders are also laser-focused on whether the Fed formally ends Quantitative Tightening (QT), its program of balance-sheet reduction. Ending QT would mark a decisive shift away from draining liquidity and toward re-expansion of financial conditions, something that has historically triggered strong “risk-on” rotations in tech stocks, equities, and Bitcoin.
🇺🇸 TODAY: FOMC decision at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Powell's press conference at 2:30 PM ET.
Are you bullish or bearish? pic.twitter.com/an9DyTlTrd
— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) October 29, 2025
Adding to the liquidity tailwind, the U.S. Treasury Department confirmed on October 28 that it bought back $2 billion of its own long-term debt, part of an operation covering maturities from 2045 to 2055. Analysts called the move “bullish for markets,” interpreting it as early evidence of fiscal and monetary coordination to stabilize yields.
BREAKING: 🇺🇸 US Treasury bought back $2,000,000,000 of its own debt.
This is bullish for markets. pic.twitter.com/ualg86feMR
— Ash Crypto (@Ashcryptoreal) October 29, 2025
Powell’s Press Conference Will Drive Volatility
All eyes will turn to Powell’s 2:30 p.m. ET press conference following the rate decision at 2:00 p.m. If Powell acknowledges weaker growth or expresses confidence that inflation is under control, markets will interpret it as a green light for continued easing.
That scenario would likely spark a drop in bond yields, a softer dollar, and a broad rally across equities and crypto, with Bitcoin positioned to benefit from renewed liquidity flows.
Conversely, if Powell strikes a cautious tone and avoids committing to additional cuts, the market reaction may be muted, a sideways consolidation rather than a sell-off, as investors await clearer data.
Bottom Line
The 25-basis-point cut is already baked into prices. What truly matters is the Fed’s forward guidance, the QT decision, and Powell’s tone. If today’s meeting marks a structural turn toward easing, it could ignite the next leg of the liquidity-driven bull cycle, one that traders across Wall Street and the crypto markets have been anticipating since mid-summer.