- ETH’s MVRV ratio (0.76) signals undervaluation, historically a rebound precursor, but current exchange inflows show hesitant dip-buying behavior.
- LTH NUPL in red parallels 2022’s capitulation phase, raising risks of cascading sell-offs below critical $1,500 support level.
Ethereum’s price recently fell below $1,500, a threshold it had maintained for over two years. This drop has triggered activity among large holders, with one selling 7,974 ETH worth $11.8 million after three years of inactivity. This reflects broader trends: long-term holders have reduced positions, contributing to a 17.52% monthly decline, outpacing losses seen in other major assets.
The breach of multi-year price support appears to have accelerated selling. Historical patterns suggest large holders often distribute assets incrementally to avoid sudden price drops.
This strategy, observed in recent weeks, aligns with behavior seen during Ethereum’s 2022 downturn, when prices fell below $1,500 and later bottomed near $883 within a month. Current conditions mirror that period, raising questions about whether further declines could follow.
Ethereum’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, which compares current prices to average purchase costs, now sits at 0.76. This indicates ETH trades 24% below the typical holder’s entry price. Similar ratios in the past have marked periods of undervaluation, often preceding price rebounds. For example, in mid-2022, ETH climbed 85% within weeks after a comparable MVRV signal.
However, current market behavior differs. Data shows exchanges received net deposits of 2 million ETH in April, suggesting investors are hesitant to accumulate despite lower prices. This contrasts with prior cycles, where undervaluation zones attracted buying. While historical data hints at recovery potential, ongoing uncertainty complicates the outlook.
The interplay between technical triggers and on-chain metrics now defines Ethereum’s trajectory. Large holders remain cautious, and retail activity lags. Whether prices stabilize or test deeper lows may depend on shifts in holder sentiment and broader market conditions. For now, Ethereum’s path hinges on balancing these competing forces.
Ethereum (ETH) is currently trading at $1,565.80, posting a 2.90% gain in the last 24 hours. Despite the bounce, ETH remains under pressure with a weekly decline of -13.74% and a monthly drop of -18.51%.
From a longer-term perspective, the asset has shed more than 52% year-to-date, highlighting persistent weakness amid regulatory and macroeconomic uncertainty. Still, the current support zone around $1,550 appears to be holding, making it a potential pivot for a short-term rebound.
Technically, ETH is showing early signs of stabilization after reaching a key demand zone. Oscillators remain neutral, and the moving averages are trending bearish, suggesting that caution is still warranted.
However, bullish reversal signals are emerging on shorter timeframes. Market sentiment is also being shaped by recent news, such as SEC approval for ETH ETF options and large-scale redemptions from major Ethereum funds, which may have contributed to volatility. If ETH manages to hold above the $1,550 level, a relief rally toward $1,770 is likely.
