Fresh on-chain data from CryptoQuant shows that 28.1% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is currently in loss, marking one of the highest readings since the mid-2024 correction. The metric indicates that more than a quarter of all existing Bitcoin is held at a price higher than the current market value, suggesting elevated short-term holder stress and potential capitulation risk.
The data tracks the “Supply in Loss” indicator, a measure of the percentage of Bitcoin whose last moved price was above the current market price. Historically, spikes in this metric have often coincided with local bottoms as weaker hands sell to long-term accumulators.
Market Context
Bitcoin’s latest pullback to around $102,500 follows a sharp multi-day selloff that wiped out $250 billion from total crypto market capitalization earlier this week. While equities have remained relatively stable, Bitcoin’s performance has lagged traditional risk assets such as the S&P 500 and Gold, both of which have seen smaller weekly declines.
According to CryptoQuant analysts, the rise in coins held at a loss may reflect a growing imbalance between whale accumulation and retail distribution, as traders reposition amid tightening global liquidity and paused ETF inflows.
What to Watch Next
Periods where over 25% of supply moves into loss have historically preceded major rebounds, particularly when combined with oversold momentum signals such as RSI and funding rate resets. With Bitcoin still holding above key support zones near $100,000, analysts warn that further volatility could flush short-term holders before a broader recovery phase begins.
For now, the data signals a market under pressure, but also one where capitulation risk and opportunity often coexist.
