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HomeBitcoin$100K Bitcoin at Risk? Why the Distribution Phase Could Crush Late Retail...

$100K Bitcoin at Risk? Why the Distribution Phase Could Crush Late Retail Investors

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  • Bitcoin’s 129% surge tests $100K as analysts debate late-stage bull cycle and Trump’s crypto impact.
  • Dow Theory flags shift to distribution phase; MicroStrategy’s 10K BTC buy hints at institutional confidence.

Bitcoin’s price surged 129.2% over the past year, surpassing $100,000, but ETHNews analysts now debate whether it approaches a cycle peak. Ki Young Ju, founder of CryptoQuant, suggests the market enters a late-stage bull run.

“New retail investors are joining, extending the distribution phase” he states. 

President Donald Trump’s pro-crypto advocacy, according to Ju, could prolong this phase for several quarters.

The Dow Theory, a framework analyzing market cycles, divides trends into accumulation and distribution phases. Bitcoin’s 2022 decline marked a distribution cycle, followed by accumulation from 2023 to 2024. Current data indicates a shift back to distribution, a pattern historically linked to price plateaus.

BTC.D_2025-02-03_17-49-49
Source: Tradingview

Despite this, Axel Adler Jr., a market analyst, argues Bitcoin’s funding rates remain stable. “The market isn’t overheated” he notes, adding that macroeconomic stability could support further growth.

Bitcoin’s “fair price” model, based on a power-law calculation, sits at $87,990. This level now acts as a baseline, with MicroStrategy’s aggressive purchases reinforcing institutional confidence.

The company acquired 10,107 BTC in early 2025, raising its total holdings to 471,107 BTC. Such activity often precedes broader market movements, as institutions signal long-term positioning.

cryptoquant-btc
Source: Cryptoquant

The distribution phase typically coincides with retail investor participation, which has risen since mid-2024. However, leverage levels in futures markets remain subdued compared to prior cycles, reducing systemic risk. ETHNews analysts emphasize that Bitcoin’s current structure allows room for price discovery, though volatility could intensify as the cycle matures.

MicroStrategy’s strategy mirrors corporate adoption trends, where firms treat Bitcoin as a reserve asset. This behavior contrasts with retail trading patterns, which dominate short-term price swings. While distribution phases often precede corrections, prolonged institutional demand might delay or soften downward pressure.

BTCUSD_2025-02-03_17-45-45
Source: Tradingview

For now, Bitcoin’s trajectory hinges on macroeconomic factors and regulatory developments. The $87,990 support level serves as a technical anchor, while MicroStrategy’s purchases highlight enduring institutional interest. Traders monitor these signals to gauge whether the bull run retains momentum or prepares for consolidation. 

Disclaimer: ETHNews does not endorse and is not responsible for or liable for any content, accuracy, quality, advertising, products, or other materials on this page. Readers should do their own research before taking any actions related to cryptocurrencies. ETHNews is not responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused or alleged to be caused by or in connection with the use of or reliance on any content, goods, or services mentioned.
Isai Alexei
Isai Alexei
As a content creator, Isai Alexei holds a degree in Marketing, providing a solid foundation for the exploration of technology and finance. Isai's journey into the crypto space began during academic years, where the transformative potential of blockchain technology was initially grasped. Intrigued, Isai delved deeper, ultimately making the inaugural cryptocurrency investment in Bitcoin. Witnessing the evolution of the crypto landscape has been both exciting and educational. Ethereum, with its smart contract capabilities, stands out as Isai's favorite, reflecting a genuine enthusiasm for cutting-edge web3 technologies. Business Email: [email protected] Phone: +49 160 92211628
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